| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp | 9.0 C | |
| RH | 12 % | |
| Wind | ENE 28 mph | |
| Road | Open | |
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Mauna Kea Observatories Forecast 10 AM HST (2000 UTC) Tuesday 09 February 2010 |
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Warning(s) None | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Cloud Cover and Fog/Precipitation Forecast The summit will remain clear, dry and stable through the night. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Summary of Key Meteorological Variables Summit temperatures will be near 9 C this afternoon, 5 C this evening and 4 C tomorrow morning.Winds will be from the NE at 20-35 mph for today, but will likely take on a more easterly direction and taper to 10-20 mph by the end of the night.Precipitable water is expected to be in the 0.9-1.1 mm range, with seeing improving from around 0.6-0.7 arcseconds for the first half of the night to 0.5-0.6 arcseconds for the second half. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Discussion The tradewind inversion will continue to cap the very limited supply of low-level moisture at or below 6 thousand feet and keep the mid/summit-level air mass dry and stable through the next 5 nights. Daytime clouds will also be minimal and short-lived through this period. Skies overhead will remain predominately clear throughout the forecast period. There is a slight chance that small patches of thin cirrus will pass through the area mainly during the daytime tomorrow. Precipitable water is expected to linger near 1 mm for the next 2 nights, then slip toward 0.7-0.8 mm for Thursday, Friday and Saturday night. Minor boundary layer turbulence may keep seeing near 0.7 arcseconds for this evening, but seeing is expected to improve toward 0.5 arcseconds as winds taper and relatively uniform northerly flow persists aloft for the remainder of the night. That will likely be short-lived as upper-level westerly flow will likely pick up through Wednesday, which will increase shear/turbulence in the free atmosphere a bit and probably degrade seeing toward 0.7 arcseconds probably for the remainder of the forecast period. A tight deep ridge will begin to settle in over the Islands during the next 24 hours, then will eventually spread out across most of the Pacific as it lingers almost directly over the Big Island probably into next week. In the process, it will lose its upper-level portion of the ridge as the westerly jet sags closer to the Islands over the latter half of the week. Nevertheless, very strong large scale subsidence will prevail in the area and ensure the air mass remain clear, dry and stable throughout the forecast period. Seeing will initially benefit from the deep ridge and should slip toward 0.5 arcseconds for tonight. However, it will likely degrade toward 0.7 arcseconds as the westerly jet shifts overhead and increases shear/turbulence in the free atmosphere for the remainder of the week. PW, on the other hand, is expected to improve from 1 mm for the next 2 nights toward 0.7-0.8 mm once the ridge settles in directly over the Big Island for Thursday and the weekend. |
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WRF Astronomical Observing Quality Guidance Cloud Cover and Precipitable Water Analyses MK CN² Profiles |
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5 Day Forecast Summary (Graphical Trend)
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Rise and Set times for the Sun and Moon
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Forecast Issued by: Tiziana Cherubini Next update at 5 PM HST Tuesday 09 February (0300 UTC Wednesday 10 February) 2010. |
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Additional Information For public road conditions and snow report message please call (808) 935-6268. This message is also available at the MKWC road conditions page. NWS Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance Honolulu National Weather Service Data and Products |
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