| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 6.3 C |
| RH | | 37 % |
| Wind | | N 14 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 050 FXHW60 PHFO 252002 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1002 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A surface ridge over the islands will produce locally breezy southeast winds around the Big Island and light and variable winds around the smaller islands through tomorrow. Sea breezes will produce clouds and spotty showers over interior sections of all islands during the afternoon hours while land breezes will bring clearing skies at night. A strong low aloft is forecast to form northwest of the area tomorrow. The atmosphere over the islands will become very moist and unstable. This combination will likely produce cloudy, wet weather starting as early as tomorrow night. Wet weather may continue through the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 9 AM, quiet weather prevails over the main Hawaiian Islands. Locally breezy southeast winds are producing clouds and isolated showers over southeast sections of the Big Island and Maui. Gentle variable winds and mostly sunny skies prevail elsewhere. A surface ridge extending northeast from near the islands is producing the southeast flow near the Big Island. The Big Island partly blocks the southeast flow so winds are gentle and variable around the smaller islands. The southeast flow will continue to push clouds and isolated showers over the Big Island and Maui through tomorrow. Elsewhere, clouds and spotty showers will form over interior areas during the afternoon today and Monday while land breezes will bring clearing clouds tonight. The global models show a deep low aloft forming northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands by tonight, then dropping south. That will make the atmosphere unstable and pull moist tropical air over islands. The GFS and ECMWF have been inconsistent with each other and have been much different from model run to model run. At this time, the best chances for enhanced showers, and possibly thunderstorms, appear to be over Kauai and Oahu but there could be heavy rain state-wide. Because of the model differences, confidence is low for the the duration of the heavy rain. && .AVIATION... Radar imagery shows little in the way of showers across the state this morning. The few that exist are focused around Kauai with the lingering moisture axis and windward areas of Maui and the Big Island on the southeast flow. These overall conditions are expected to continue through the day with prevailing VFR for all locations. Sea breeze development is anticipated again for most leeward areas this afternoon, which will favor some inland cloud build-ups and a few showers through early evening. These areas will once again clear out overnight with the land breeze. No AIRMETs are in effect, nor expected through tonight. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain far to our northeast over the next several days with its associated ridge axis extending southwest to a position just north of the state. Southeast flow prevails across the area with the strongest winds east of Maui and the Big Island. A front will be approaching the area from the west Tuesday through Thursday with unsettled weather a possibility. A High Surf Advisory is currently posted for most north and west facing shores from Maui county westward as a moderate size long period northwest swell moves through the Hawaiian coastal waters. The swell is running a couple of feet higher than model guidance. The height of swell is expected to remain about the same through Monday but the periods will gradually become lower with time. This swell will lower gradually Monday night through Wednesday. Another moderate size long period northwest swell may arrive late Saturday. A small, medium period northeast swell is expected to fill in later today, then linger on through Tuesday. There will also be a series of small long period south swells through most of this week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 AM Monday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai and for north facing shores of Maui. && $$ DISCUSSION...Donaldson AVIATION...TS MARINE...Burke Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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