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Temp-2.4 C
RH79 %
WindN 18 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

852
FXHW60 PHFO 061301
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
301 AM HST Thu Aug 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to breezy
trades in place through early next week, with the trades peaking
over the weekend. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas
through the period, with a stray shower occasionally spilling
leeward. A disturbance moving through aloft is expected to
bring a more shower pattern to the area through Friday, with drier
conditions moving in over the weekend through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high centered around 1100
miles north of Honolulu, is driving moderate trade winds across
the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery
shows mostly cloudy skies in windward areas, with variably cloudy
conditions in leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered to
numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with
showers regularly spilling into some leeward areas. Main short
term focus revolves around rain chances during the next couple
days.

High pressure will remain nearly stationary to the north of the
islands for the next couple days, keeping moderate to locally
breezy trade winds in place. The high will strengthen to around
1035 mb this weekend, and with inversion heights lowering to
around 6 kft, the trade wind speeds should increase to breezy
levels statewide, and a Wind Advisory may be required for some of
the typically windier locations during this time. The high will
weaken and shift slowly westward well to the north of the islands
early next week, and this should lead to a slight easing of the
trades, although moderate to locally breezy conditions will likely
continue through the middle of next week.

As for weather details, an increase in deep layer moisture
associated with a mid-level disturbance continues to spread over
the islands early this morning, and is expected to slowly shift
from east to west across the state through Friday. This area of
enhanced moisture should keep periods of rather wet weather moving
into windward areas, with showers spreading into leeward sections
more regularly as well. Drier more typical trade wind weather
will resume Friday night and continue through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep
moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast for the next
several days. A disturbance moving across the state will bring
periods of MVFR conditions with low cloud ceilings and showers
along north and east sections of all islands.

AIRMET SIERRA in effect for tempo mountain obscuration above 2000
feet for north and east sections of all islands this morning. Low
cloud ceiling coverage will decrease by afternoon.

AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for low level moderate turbulence
below 8000 feet for areas over and immediately south through west
of mountains on all islands. AIRMET Tango will likely continue
through the rest of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure far north-northeast of the area will remain
nearly stationary, sustaining a moderate to locally breezy trade
wind pattern over the islands into the weekend. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) continues for the typically windier areas near Maui
County and the Big Island through Saturday afternoon. However,
the SCA may need to be extended, and expanded in area, over the
weekend as winds are likely to increase.

A small, and fairly short-period, southeast swell will persist
into next week, but the Big Island will block some of this swell
from reaching the rest of the islands. Long-period swells from
deep in the southern hemisphere will remain small, but help to
keep surf along the south shores somewhat elevated. Small surf
along east facing shores will build through the weekend as trade
winds strengthen.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Kinel

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office