| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -2.5 C |
| RH | | 84 % |
| Wind | | N 22 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 852 FXHW60 PHFO 061301 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 301 AM HST Thu Aug 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to breezy trades in place through early next week, with the trades peaking over the weekend. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas through the period, with a stray shower occasionally spilling leeward. A disturbance moving through aloft is expected to bring a more shower pattern to the area through Friday, with drier conditions moving in over the weekend through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high centered around 1100 miles north of Honolulu, is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies in windward areas, with variably cloudy conditions in leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with showers regularly spilling into some leeward areas. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances during the next couple days. High pressure will remain nearly stationary to the north of the islands for the next couple days, keeping moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place. The high will strengthen to around 1035 mb this weekend, and with inversion heights lowering to around 6 kft, the trade wind speeds should increase to breezy levels statewide, and a Wind Advisory may be required for some of the typically windier locations during this time. The high will weaken and shift slowly westward well to the north of the islands early next week, and this should lead to a slight easing of the trades, although moderate to locally breezy conditions will likely continue through the middle of next week. As for weather details, an increase in deep layer moisture associated with a mid-level disturbance continues to spread over the islands early this morning, and is expected to slowly shift from east to west across the state through Friday. This area of enhanced moisture should keep periods of rather wet weather moving into windward areas, with showers spreading into leeward sections more regularly as well. Drier more typical trade wind weather will resume Friday night and continue through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast for the next several days. A disturbance moving across the state will bring periods of MVFR conditions with low cloud ceilings and showers along north and east sections of all islands. AIRMET SIERRA in effect for tempo mountain obscuration above 2000 feet for north and east sections of all islands this morning. Low cloud ceiling coverage will decrease by afternoon. AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for low level moderate turbulence below 8000 feet for areas over and immediately south through west of mountains on all islands. AIRMET Tango will likely continue through the rest of the week. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure far north-northeast of the area will remain nearly stationary, sustaining a moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern over the islands into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues for the typically windier areas near Maui County and the Big Island through Saturday afternoon. However, the SCA may need to be extended, and expanded in area, over the weekend as winds are likely to increase. A small, and fairly short-period, southeast swell will persist into next week, but the Big Island will block some of this swell from reaching the rest of the islands. Long-period swells from deep in the southern hemisphere will remain small, but help to keep surf along the south shores somewhat elevated. Small surf along east facing shores will build through the weekend as trade winds strengthen. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jelsema AVIATION...Bohlin MARINE...Kinel Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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