NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
174
FXHW60 PHFO 180649
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
849 PM HST Wed Apr 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and pleasant trade wind conditions will prevail
through next week. Trade winds will strengthen Thursday and
continue into next week, with a slight weakening over the
weekend. Clouds and brief showers will favor windward and mauka
locations overnight through the mornings as areas of moisture move
through periodically.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest model guidance has initialized well with the current
pattern and depicts mostly dry conditions prevailing through next
week as high pressure builds north of the state. The low- level
flow has shifted out of the northeast and is expected to reach the
breezy category through the day Thursday. Despite the dry
conditions in place, a weak upper trough moving through combined
with a remnant low-level moisture boundary settling south into the
smaller islands this evening may be enough for a few light
showers over north through northeast facing slopes, especially as
the winds pick up late tonight into Thursday. This band of
moisture will linger into Thursday night, then diminish.
The breezy trades will hold Friday, but ease into the light to
moderate range over the weekend as a weakness forms in the ridge
as a system passes far to the north. The southern extent of the
mid- to upper-level trough will pass nearby to the north through
this time, which could support a light increase in windward shower
coverage through the overnight/morning periods. Rising upper
heights along with a strengthening surface ridge to the north will
support the dry conditions prevailing early next week with the
easterly trades becoming breezy.
&&
.AVIATION...
Surface high pressure northwest of the state will continue to
drift eastward during the forecast period and help shift north
northeasterly winds to northeasterly across the islands. Thus,
this more typical tradewind pattern will bring shower activity to
mainly windward locations. Expect brief periods of MVFR ceilings
and visibility to be associated with this activity, especially
for the western islands. VFR conditions elsewhere.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate northeast trades will persist through the forecast
period possibly strengthening slightly during the weekend.
Small surf along south facing shores will hold through Thursday
as overlapping south swells maintain elevated surf through the
end of the week. The current northwest swell will become
increasingly north as it gradually subsides through Thursday. A
small north swell will bring a modest bump to exposed shorelines
during the latter half of the weekend. Surf along east facing
shores will remain small.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Powell
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
174
FXHW60 PHFO 180649
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
849 PM HST Wed Apr 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and pleasant trade wind conditions will prevail
through next week. Trade winds will strengthen Thursday and
continue into next week, with a slight weakening over the
weekend. Clouds and brief showers will favor windward and mauka
locations overnight through the mornings as areas of moisture move
through periodically.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest model guidance has initialized well with the current
pattern and depicts mostly dry conditions prevailing through next
week as high pressure builds north of the state. The low- level
flow has shifted out of the northeast and is expected to reach the
breezy category through the day Thursday. Despite the dry
conditions in place, a weak upper trough moving through combined
with a remnant low-level moisture boundary settling south into the
smaller islands this evening may be enough for a few light
showers over north through northeast facing slopes, especially as
the winds pick up late tonight into Thursday. This band of
moisture will linger into Thursday night, then diminish.
The breezy trades will hold Friday, but ease into the light to
moderate range over the weekend as a weakness forms in the ridge
as a system passes far to the north. The southern extent of the
mid- to upper-level trough will pass nearby to the north through
this time, which could support a light increase in windward shower
coverage through the overnight/morning periods. Rising upper
heights along with a strengthening surface ridge to the north will
support the dry conditions prevailing early next week with the
easterly trades becoming breezy.
&&
.AVIATION...
Surface high pressure northwest of the state will continue to
drift eastward during the forecast period and help shift north
northeasterly winds to northeasterly across the islands. Thus,
this more typical tradewind pattern will bring shower activity to
mainly windward locations. Expect brief periods of MVFR ceilings
and visibility to be associated with this activity, especially
for the western islands. VFR conditions elsewhere.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate northeast trades will persist through the forecast
period possibly strengthening slightly during the weekend.
Small surf along south facing shores will hold through Thursday
as overlapping south swells maintain elevated surf through the
end of the week. The current northwest swell will become
increasingly north as it gradually subsides through Thursday. A
small north swell will bring a modest bump to exposed shorelines
during the latter half of the weekend. Surf along east facing
shores will remain small.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Powell
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office