| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 0.2 C |
| RH | | 40 % |
| Wind | | W 11 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 421 FXHW60 PHFO 270159 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 359 PM HST Thu Nov 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas through the weekend. Shortwave energy could destabilize the weather over the eastern islands and waters this weekend. Winds will taper off during the first half of next week as a cold front approaches. The front will dissipate on Wednesday before it reaches the islands. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure systems northeast and northwest of Hawaii are driving fresh trade winds across the island chain this afternoon. Aloft, a weak upper trough over the eastern end of the state moving to the east while more stable northwesterly flow fills in behind. 00Z soundings at Hilo and Lihue show that a weak inversion has developed over the state and precipitable water values have fallen back to a near-normal 1.4 inches. Visible satellite and radar show scattered clouds and showers focused on windward sides of Kauai, Oahu on the Kona slopes of the Big Island. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevail across the the remaining leeward sides. The upper trough will linger east of the area through the weekend, while upper level ridging will nose in from the west, placing the islands under a somewhat stable northwest flow. Two shortwave energy pulses will quickly move through the upper trough, first on Friday night and again on Sunday night/Monday before the upper ridge definitively takes over next week. These pulses could trigger a few heavy showers or thunderstorms near Maui and the Big Island. Most likely scenario is the heavy rain/thunderstorms stays just east of both islands, but can't completely rule out an impact to either island. At the low levels, moderate to fresh trades will continue to direct clouds and showers over windward and mauka sections through the weekend. A few showers will likely spill over to leeward sides of the smaller islands at times due to the strength of the winds. Trades will back more northeasterly Friday into Sunday as a surface trough sets up northeast of the area (that will not directly affect us). Next week, winds will taper off as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Daytime sea breezes/nighttime land breezes may be possible on Monday. The front will dissipate north of the area on Wednesday, with trade winds the front and reaching the islands by Tuesday. Another front will approach the state next weekend. && .AVIATION... High pressure far northeast of the area will shift eastward and be replaced by a new high building in to the north of the state tonight and Friday. This will keep a moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow in place through Friday. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas with a few brief showers falling over select leeward areas at times. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence downwind of terrain on all islands due to the moderate to breezy trade winds. This AIRMET will continue through the overnight hours. A sharp eastward moving upper level trough is causing moderate upper level turbulence from Oahu eastward to the Big Island. As the trough shifts slowly eastward, conditions should improve over Oahu and possibly parts of Maui County overnight and early Friday. && .MARINE... With high pressure persisting far north of the area, trade winds will continue to be moderate to locally breezy across the coastal waters over the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory remains posted for the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island through early Friday morning, and may need to be extended beyond that time period. A series of northwest and/or north-northwest swells will affect the local waters and coasts through next week. The latest model runs indicate a large, long-period northwest to north-northwest swell may begin arriving late Monday or early Tuesday. If this one materializes, it will bring High Surf Advisory, even Warning, conditions to north- and west-facing shores. Surf along east-facing shores will remain somewhat elevated through the weekend as trade winds persist. Surf along south- facing shores will be small into next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...Burke MARINE...Kinel Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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