NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
189
FXHW60 PHFO 231915
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
915 AM HST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and crisp mornings followed by typical daytime high
temperatures expected the next couple of days. Moderate trades
return this weekend allowing overnight temperatures to rebound
toward normal and bringing a chance for rain mainly to windward
and mauka areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cool and crisp conditions in place from Kauai into Maui County
behind yesterday's cold front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s and
light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the low 60s and
even upper 50s in a few select locales. Expect a repeat tonight into
early Friday as the cool and dry airmass remains in place and winds
further weaken and give way to cool offshore land breezes. The front
itself has stalled in the Alenuihaha Channel between the Big Island
and Maui and is defined by narrow band of light to moderate showers.
Given the loss of upper-level support, little if any additional
forward progress is expected and existing shower activity will
likely diminish with the onset of diurnal cloud top warming. Thus,
this airmass will struggle to reach the Big Island and showers
will largely remain offshore except for portions of the Kohala and
North Kona Districts. Existing low-level moisture within the
frontal band will foster afternoon clouds and showers over
interior Big Island in typical fashion.
A transient period of mid-level ridging over the NE Pacific Basin
will allow moderate trades to return for the weekend. The return of
easterlies will usher remnant frontal moisture presently in the
vicinity of the Big Island westward and will serve as a moisture
source for typical trade wind showers Saturday night into the first
half of next week.
Strong consensus among the extended guidance that renewed troughing
within NW flow aloft will favor low pressure development over the
lower latitudes of the Central Pacific. The remnant frontal boundary
will strengthen in response to developing forcing and will serve as
the baroclinic pathway for the surface low to track near or north of
the forecast area during the middle to latter portion of next week.
Convective feedback is playing some havoc with model solutions at
this time, so uncertainty is greater than normal, but the second
half of next week seemingly offers the next opportunity for
meaningful rainfall across some or all of the island chain.
&&
.AVIATION...
A stalled front will gradually dissipate between Maui and the Big
Island through tonight. Moisture along the front is producing
clouds and scattered SHRA over northwest sections of the Big
Island this morning, where AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration
is in effect. As sea breezes produce areas of MVFR conditions over
interior Big Island this afternoon, the AIRMET may need to be
adjusted, and overnight sea breezes should bring clearing during
the evening. Aside from lingering moisture over interior Maui, the
rest of the islands will experience VFR conditions under a light,
dry, and stable west to northwest flow.
An upper level trough passing over the state will continue to
produce moderate turbulence between 140 and FL250 through much of
the day, and AIRMET Tango will likely remain in place. Severe
turbulence above FL250 will wane through the day, and SIGMET Papa
should move away from the islands this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate west to northwest winds will gradually weaken today as a
ridge builds over the state, with a period of light and variable
winds expected tonight through early Friday. The ridge will lift
northward late Friday into the weekend, which should allow light
to moderate trade winds to return. The winds become more uncertain
early next week as a trough moves in from the east and a cold
front approaches from the northwest.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for most marine
zones through 6 pm Friday due to 10 foot seas.
A pair of short and medium period northwest swells are producing
large disorganized surf along north facing shores early this
morning. A new large north to north-northwest swell will arrive
this afternoon, peak tonight, then gradually decline Friday
through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for
north facing exposures through 6 pm HST Friday. A series of
moderate northwest and north swells are possible early next week.
Aside from areas exposed to wrap from north swells, east shore
surf will remain well below normal through the middle of next
week.
South shore surf will remain at background very small levels
through the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon RH values are forecast to fall below 45% today and
tomorrow but winds are expected to fall well short of the critical
fire behavior threshold.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai
North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...JVC
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
189
FXHW60 PHFO 231915
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
915 AM HST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and crisp mornings followed by typical daytime high
temperatures expected the next couple of days. Moderate trades
return this weekend allowing overnight temperatures to rebound
toward normal and bringing a chance for rain mainly to windward
and mauka areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cool and crisp conditions in place from Kauai into Maui County
behind yesterday's cold front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s and
light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the low 60s and
even upper 50s in a few select locales. Expect a repeat tonight into
early Friday as the cool and dry airmass remains in place and winds
further weaken and give way to cool offshore land breezes. The front
itself has stalled in the Alenuihaha Channel between the Big Island
and Maui and is defined by narrow band of light to moderate showers.
Given the loss of upper-level support, little if any additional
forward progress is expected and existing shower activity will
likely diminish with the onset of diurnal cloud top warming. Thus,
this airmass will struggle to reach the Big Island and showers
will largely remain offshore except for portions of the Kohala and
North Kona Districts. Existing low-level moisture within the
frontal band will foster afternoon clouds and showers over
interior Big Island in typical fashion.
A transient period of mid-level ridging over the NE Pacific Basin
will allow moderate trades to return for the weekend. The return of
easterlies will usher remnant frontal moisture presently in the
vicinity of the Big Island westward and will serve as a moisture
source for typical trade wind showers Saturday night into the first
half of next week.
Strong consensus among the extended guidance that renewed troughing
within NW flow aloft will favor low pressure development over the
lower latitudes of the Central Pacific. The remnant frontal boundary
will strengthen in response to developing forcing and will serve as
the baroclinic pathway for the surface low to track near or north of
the forecast area during the middle to latter portion of next week.
Convective feedback is playing some havoc with model solutions at
this time, so uncertainty is greater than normal, but the second
half of next week seemingly offers the next opportunity for
meaningful rainfall across some or all of the island chain.
&&
.AVIATION...
A stalled front will gradually dissipate between Maui and the Big
Island through tonight. Moisture along the front is producing
clouds and scattered SHRA over northwest sections of the Big
Island this morning, where AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration
is in effect. As sea breezes produce areas of MVFR conditions over
interior Big Island this afternoon, the AIRMET may need to be
adjusted, and overnight sea breezes should bring clearing during
the evening. Aside from lingering moisture over interior Maui, the
rest of the islands will experience VFR conditions under a light,
dry, and stable west to northwest flow.
An upper level trough passing over the state will continue to
produce moderate turbulence between 140 and FL250 through much of
the day, and AIRMET Tango will likely remain in place. Severe
turbulence above FL250 will wane through the day, and SIGMET Papa
should move away from the islands this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate west to northwest winds will gradually weaken today as a
ridge builds over the state, with a period of light and variable
winds expected tonight through early Friday. The ridge will lift
northward late Friday into the weekend, which should allow light
to moderate trade winds to return. The winds become more uncertain
early next week as a trough moves in from the east and a cold
front approaches from the northwest.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for most marine
zones through 6 pm Friday due to 10 foot seas.
A pair of short and medium period northwest swells are producing
large disorganized surf along north facing shores early this
morning. A new large north to north-northwest swell will arrive
this afternoon, peak tonight, then gradually decline Friday
through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for
north facing exposures through 6 pm HST Friday. A series of
moderate northwest and north swells are possible early next week.
Aside from areas exposed to wrap from north swells, east shore
surf will remain well below normal through the middle of next
week.
South shore surf will remain at background very small levels
through the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon RH values are forecast to fall below 45% today and
tomorrow but winds are expected to fall well short of the critical
fire behavior threshold.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai
North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...JVC
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office