NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
462
FXHW60 PHFO 131341
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
341 AM HST Fri Feb 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will continue into next week, bringing showers to the
usual windward areas. Winds will increase over the weekend as a
new high strengthens north of the islands.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning. The forecast
has been updated with the latest National Blend of Models
solution, which is very similar to the previously issued forecast.
High pressure to the northeast is maintaining a breezy trade wind
pattern over the islands. Winds should decrease a bit today as
the high weakens. However winds will be on the uptick once again
over the weekend as a new high moves far north of the islands and
strengthens.
With the trade wind pattern, expect clouds and showers to be
focused over the windward sides of the islands. As trades increase
this weekend, some of the showers could reach leeward locations.
An upper level trough to the west of the islands will move towards
the islands and weaken. By Sunday this upper level features is
expected to weaken and be near the islands, and could enhance some
of the trade wind showers. As this feature washes out, we will
return to a more typical trade wind shower pattern.
The GFS is more progressive than the ECMWF with a front/trough
moving towards the islands from the northwest next week. The GFS
solution would have the boundary near Kauai Wednesday night, while
the ECMWF could still have it to the northwest of Kauai at that
time. Will continue to monitor this feature in future model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...
High pressure northeast of the islands will maintain a breezy
trade wind pattern through the weekend. Clouds and showers riding
in on the trade winds will bring passing MVFR conditions mostly to
windward locations, while leeward areas are expected to remain
VFR.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for Kauai,
and Oahu for windward sections due to ongoing showers and low
ceilings. Conditions improved overnight over the islands of Maui
County and the Big Island, and improvement over Kauai and Oahu is
expected today.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 7 kft
for leeward sides of the islands. Conditions are expected to
persist for the next several days.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong high pressure building far north of the waters will
continue to drift east supporting moderate to strong easterly
trade winds and elevated seas into next week. Winds look to
maintain strong speeds but veer slightly early next week as high
pressure continues to tracks east and a potential disturbance may
develop to the west northwest of the islands too. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all coastal water zones
through Saturday night due to a combination of winds and seas
reaching criteria during the next 48 hours.
A small to moderate medium to long period northwest swell will
continue to build through the day and peak late tonight into
Saturday below High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels, before declining
through the weekend. Looking into next week, small background
northwest swell energy is expected through the forecast period.
Surf along east facing shores will continue to build over all
waters into this weekend and early next week due to persistent
strong trades locally and upstream of the islands. A HSA is likely
for east facing shores over the weekend.
Surf along south shores remains small with some background trade
wind swell for select exposures.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for All Hawaiian
Coastal Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
462
FXHW60 PHFO 131341
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
341 AM HST Fri Feb 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will continue into next week, bringing showers to the
usual windward areas. Winds will increase over the weekend as a
new high strengthens north of the islands.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning. The forecast
has been updated with the latest National Blend of Models
solution, which is very similar to the previously issued forecast.
High pressure to the northeast is maintaining a breezy trade wind
pattern over the islands. Winds should decrease a bit today as
the high weakens. However winds will be on the uptick once again
over the weekend as a new high moves far north of the islands and
strengthens.
With the trade wind pattern, expect clouds and showers to be
focused over the windward sides of the islands. As trades increase
this weekend, some of the showers could reach leeward locations.
An upper level trough to the west of the islands will move towards
the islands and weaken. By Sunday this upper level features is
expected to weaken and be near the islands, and could enhance some
of the trade wind showers. As this feature washes out, we will
return to a more typical trade wind shower pattern.
The GFS is more progressive than the ECMWF with a front/trough
moving towards the islands from the northwest next week. The GFS
solution would have the boundary near Kauai Wednesday night, while
the ECMWF could still have it to the northwest of Kauai at that
time. Will continue to monitor this feature in future model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...
High pressure northeast of the islands will maintain a breezy
trade wind pattern through the weekend. Clouds and showers riding
in on the trade winds will bring passing MVFR conditions mostly to
windward locations, while leeward areas are expected to remain
VFR.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for Kauai,
and Oahu for windward sections due to ongoing showers and low
ceilings. Conditions improved overnight over the islands of Maui
County and the Big Island, and improvement over Kauai and Oahu is
expected today.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 7 kft
for leeward sides of the islands. Conditions are expected to
persist for the next several days.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong high pressure building far north of the waters will
continue to drift east supporting moderate to strong easterly
trade winds and elevated seas into next week. Winds look to
maintain strong speeds but veer slightly early next week as high
pressure continues to tracks east and a potential disturbance may
develop to the west northwest of the islands too. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all coastal water zones
through Saturday night due to a combination of winds and seas
reaching criteria during the next 48 hours.
A small to moderate medium to long period northwest swell will
continue to build through the day and peak late tonight into
Saturday below High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels, before declining
through the weekend. Looking into next week, small background
northwest swell energy is expected through the forecast period.
Surf along east facing shores will continue to build over all
waters into this weekend and early next week due to persistent
strong trades locally and upstream of the islands. A HSA is likely
for east facing shores over the weekend.
Surf along south shores remains small with some background trade
wind swell for select exposures.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for All Hawaiian
Coastal Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office