NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
816
FXHW60 PHFO 120059
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
259 PM HST Wed Jun 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades become locally strong this weekend into next week
delivering limited clouds and showers mainly to windward and mauka
areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows clearly ridging established over the islands
with a closed upper low established immediately to the west. Thunderstorms
are common within the cold core of this low where they will remain until
it shears out in the next 24-36 hours. Subtle surface pressure
falls may diminish the gradient a bit or cause winds to slightly
veer to ESE over the western end of the state, but this low otherwise
remains inconsequential. Over the islands, the trade wind inversion
is flat, registering at about 5.5kft on both the Lihue and Hilo soundings,
though some diminished stability is noted on the Lihue sounding.
An isolated heavy shower or two is possible over the western end
of the state within any batches of deeper moisture embedded in the
trades, but overall satellite imagery and model solutions indicate
continued dry weather with little in the way of upstream moisture to
speak of. Aloft, the resident subtropical jet funnels high clouds
across area skies.
Renewed upper low development takes place directly over the islands
this weekend which will maintain relatively low stability over the
western end of the state, but potential appears to once again be
compromised by a lack of moisture availability. Instead, expect
strong mid-level ridging aligned along 150W to strengthen seasonably
dry trades this weekend into next week. The best opportunity for
showers will be windward/mauka zones mainly overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...
A stable, moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow will persist
for the next couple of days. Periods of MVFR ceiling and
visibility in SHRA will focused along windward slopes. VFR will
dominate over most leeward areas, but sheltered terrain will
experience isolated MVFR conditions each afternoon, especially on
the Kona slopes of the Big Island. The stable trade wind flow will
produce light turbulence below 7,000 feet, but these condition
should not require SIGMET Tango through Thursday. An upper-level
low to the west will send high clouds over the state and may
produce some light turbulence above FL300.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will remain stationary far northeast of the islands
through the week, then re-center to the north and strengthen this
weekend. As a result, fresh to locally strong trades will become
more widespread during the weekend into early next week. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the windier waters and channels
around Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small over the next
couple of days before a small, moderate period south swell fills
in Friday into the weekend. A slightly larger swell from a fetch
near New Zealand could arrive early next week and hold through the
middle of the week, boosting surf heights.
Surf along east facing shores will remain moderate and choppy due
to moderate trade wind swell, and surf along north facing shores
will remain tiny through the forecast period.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Tsamous
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
816
FXHW60 PHFO 120059
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
259 PM HST Wed Jun 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades become locally strong this weekend into next week
delivering limited clouds and showers mainly to windward and mauka
areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows clearly ridging established over the islands
with a closed upper low established immediately to the west. Thunderstorms
are common within the cold core of this low where they will remain until
it shears out in the next 24-36 hours. Subtle surface pressure
falls may diminish the gradient a bit or cause winds to slightly
veer to ESE over the western end of the state, but this low otherwise
remains inconsequential. Over the islands, the trade wind inversion
is flat, registering at about 5.5kft on both the Lihue and Hilo soundings,
though some diminished stability is noted on the Lihue sounding.
An isolated heavy shower or two is possible over the western end
of the state within any batches of deeper moisture embedded in the
trades, but overall satellite imagery and model solutions indicate
continued dry weather with little in the way of upstream moisture to
speak of. Aloft, the resident subtropical jet funnels high clouds
across area skies.
Renewed upper low development takes place directly over the islands
this weekend which will maintain relatively low stability over the
western end of the state, but potential appears to once again be
compromised by a lack of moisture availability. Instead, expect
strong mid-level ridging aligned along 150W to strengthen seasonably
dry trades this weekend into next week. The best opportunity for
showers will be windward/mauka zones mainly overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...
A stable, moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow will persist
for the next couple of days. Periods of MVFR ceiling and
visibility in SHRA will focused along windward slopes. VFR will
dominate over most leeward areas, but sheltered terrain will
experience isolated MVFR conditions each afternoon, especially on
the Kona slopes of the Big Island. The stable trade wind flow will
produce light turbulence below 7,000 feet, but these condition
should not require SIGMET Tango through Thursday. An upper-level
low to the west will send high clouds over the state and may
produce some light turbulence above FL300.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will remain stationary far northeast of the islands
through the week, then re-center to the north and strengthen this
weekend. As a result, fresh to locally strong trades will become
more widespread during the weekend into early next week. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the windier waters and channels
around Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small over the next
couple of days before a small, moderate period south swell fills
in Friday into the weekend. A slightly larger swell from a fetch
near New Zealand could arrive early next week and hold through the
middle of the week, boosting surf heights.
Surf along east facing shores will remain moderate and choppy due
to moderate trade wind swell, and surf along north facing shores
will remain tiny through the forecast period.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Tsamous
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office