NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
239
FXHW60 PHFO 112022 CCA
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1022 AM HST Wed Sep 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stable land and sea breeze pattern will persist over most areas
today with interior clouds and spotty showers during the afternoon
and evening. Easterly trade winds will return tonight, then become
locally breezy Thursday and Friday with a typical pattern of mainly
windward showers through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The deep low pressure centered about 750 miles north of the state
the past few days has weakened this morning. The moisture pool
associated with the remnants of a stalled boundary just north of
Kauai is much-diminished as well. The subtropical ridge remains
weakened by this trough and pushed southward to just north of
Oahu, resulting in gentle southeasterly flow around the Big Island
and light and variable winds over the smaller islands. Satellite
imagery shows mostly clear skies over the islands this morning due
to overnight land breezes. The subtropical ridge will gradually
strengthen and lift northward today as the trough to the north
continues to weaken, leading to light southeast to south background
winds from Maui to Kauai and rebuilding easterly trade winds on
the Big Island.
Trade winds will build back in and strengthen from east to west
across the island chain tonight through Thursday as broad high
pressure in the North Pacific exerts a greater influence. This
will bring a return to typical, late summer trade wind weather,
with showers mainly focused along windward slopes during the
overnight and early morning hours. With the exception of afternoon
showers on the Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas should
be rather dry. Trades look to strengthen this weekend and will
likely hold firm into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
A trough that has stalled near Kauai has disrupted our typical
trade wind pattern, and supports the light and variable winds
continuing through Wednesday. Expect a gradual clearing trend
through the evening hours for the smaller islands, then later
tonight over the Big Island as land breezes become established.
As a result, the AIRMET Sierra for MTN OBSC on Kauai will likely
be dropped later this evening. On Wednesday, expect increasing
cloud/shower coverage through the late morning and afternoon
hours as sea breezes develop, especially over and around Kauai
closer to the trough/moisture axis.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak surface trough in the northwest offshore waters will
continue to drift northwest through Thursday. Light to gentle
southeast flow will prevail over the western waters through this
afternoon before trade winds gradually return east to west across
the waters this evening. Trade winds look to gradually strengthen
to the moderate to locally strong speeds by Thursday night. The
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is likely for the windier waters and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island Thursday night
through the weekend.
Surf along north facing shores will continue to decline as the
short to medium-period north swell fades through the end of the
week. North shore surf will return to mostly flat levels over the
weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain tiny except
shores exposed to the north swell today. The return of fresh to
strong trades will allow for rough and choppy surf to gradually
build back to near normal levels Thursday through the weekend.
A mix of background southwest and southeast swells will produce
small surf over the next few days. A slight uptick is expected
from the south south-west this Friday as a small long period swell
moves in and holds through the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
239
FXHW60 PHFO 112022 CCA
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1022 AM HST Wed Sep 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stable land and sea breeze pattern will persist over most areas
today with interior clouds and spotty showers during the afternoon
and evening. Easterly trade winds will return tonight, then become
locally breezy Thursday and Friday with a typical pattern of mainly
windward showers through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The deep low pressure centered about 750 miles north of the state
the past few days has weakened this morning. The moisture pool
associated with the remnants of a stalled boundary just north of
Kauai is much-diminished as well. The subtropical ridge remains
weakened by this trough and pushed southward to just north of
Oahu, resulting in gentle southeasterly flow around the Big Island
and light and variable winds over the smaller islands. Satellite
imagery shows mostly clear skies over the islands this morning due
to overnight land breezes. The subtropical ridge will gradually
strengthen and lift northward today as the trough to the north
continues to weaken, leading to light southeast to south background
winds from Maui to Kauai and rebuilding easterly trade winds on
the Big Island.
Trade winds will build back in and strengthen from east to west
across the island chain tonight through Thursday as broad high
pressure in the North Pacific exerts a greater influence. This
will bring a return to typical, late summer trade wind weather,
with showers mainly focused along windward slopes during the
overnight and early morning hours. With the exception of afternoon
showers on the Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas should
be rather dry. Trades look to strengthen this weekend and will
likely hold firm into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
A trough that has stalled near Kauai has disrupted our typical
trade wind pattern, and supports the light and variable winds
continuing through Wednesday. Expect a gradual clearing trend
through the evening hours for the smaller islands, then later
tonight over the Big Island as land breezes become established.
As a result, the AIRMET Sierra for MTN OBSC on Kauai will likely
be dropped later this evening. On Wednesday, expect increasing
cloud/shower coverage through the late morning and afternoon
hours as sea breezes develop, especially over and around Kauai
closer to the trough/moisture axis.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak surface trough in the northwest offshore waters will
continue to drift northwest through Thursday. Light to gentle
southeast flow will prevail over the western waters through this
afternoon before trade winds gradually return east to west across
the waters this evening. Trade winds look to gradually strengthen
to the moderate to locally strong speeds by Thursday night. The
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is likely for the windier waters and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island Thursday night
through the weekend.
Surf along north facing shores will continue to decline as the
short to medium-period north swell fades through the end of the
week. North shore surf will return to mostly flat levels over the
weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain tiny except
shores exposed to the north swell today. The return of fresh to
strong trades will allow for rough and choppy surf to gradually
build back to near normal levels Thursday through the weekend.
A mix of background southwest and southeast swells will produce
small surf over the next few days. A slight uptick is expected
from the south south-west this Friday as a small long period swell
moves in and holds through the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office