NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
907
FXHW60 PHFO 130108
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
308 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will continue through the weekend and into next week,
bringing showers to the usual areas. Sunday should have the
highest concentration of showers, but not expecting anything that
would require headlines. A trough may move close enough to put us
in a wetter pattern from the middle to the end of next week, but
confidence is not high at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026
Scattered showers were occurring this afternoon across all
islands, favoring windward and mauka areas, but also in the Kona
region of Big Island. Precipitation recorded so far today is
generally around a tenth of an inch or so, with higher amounts at
higher elevations and in some windward locations. Skies were
partly to mostly cloudy, and highly variable in both time and
space. Trade winds were blowing out of the east averaging 10-20
mph with gusts 20-30 mph.
A strong surface high north of the state, associated with a high-
amplitude upper level ridge, will get even stronger through
Saturday before weakening Sunday into early next week. The result
for our weather will be a continuation of trade winds and the
typical windward and mauka showers that come with that. Winds will
be moderate, but below advisory threshold over land.
An enhanced band of moisture will move east to west through the
state Sunday into Sunday night, bringing a slight increase in
showers. The upper level ridge referenced earlier will shift east
and weaken Monday into Tuesday as a high-amplitude trough attempts
to move east across the central Pacific. By Wednesday and Thursday
of next week, models show a large spread of potential strength and
location of this next upper trough. The latest deterministic GFS
shows a moderate closed low moving into position just a few
hundred miles northwest of the state. This would like put us back
in a wet pattern for the middle to latter part of next week. The
latest EC has most of the energy going farther north of the state,
with only weak troughing to our west. The ensembles are split as
well, so we will continue to watch this potential system over the
coming days until some convergence in solutions occurs.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026
Breezy trades will continue to persist over most of the island
chain. Intermittent mountain and windward showers are expected to
persist as well, with MVFR conditions possible under shower
activity. Leeward sites expected to remain VFR.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for Kauai,
Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island for windward sections due
to ongoing showers and low ceilings. Conditions are largely
expected to persist through the evening.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 7 kft
for leeward sides of the islands. Conditions are expected to
persist for the next several days.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026
Strong high pressure anchored along 30N and troughing west of the
islands will support strong easterly trades in maintenance of
elevated seas into next week. A Small Craft Advisory for a
combination of winds and waves is likely to remain in effect
throughout this time.
A small NW swell building this afternoon will peak on friday
bringing a small bump to surf along N and W facing shores. N and W
facing shores then see little in the way of additional energy for
the following several days until another small NW swell arrives
during the latter portions of next week.
Surf along E shores remains elevated due to persistent strong
trades. Restrengthening of trades this weekend into early next
week will likely produce another round of advisory-level surf and
possibly warning level surf along E shores of Oahu and Kauai.
Surf along S shores remains small with some background trade wind
swell for select exposures.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Thomas/Evans
MARINE...JVC
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
907
FXHW60 PHFO 130108
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
308 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will continue through the weekend and into next week,
bringing showers to the usual areas. Sunday should have the
highest concentration of showers, but not expecting anything that
would require headlines. A trough may move close enough to put us
in a wetter pattern from the middle to the end of next week, but
confidence is not high at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026
Scattered showers were occurring this afternoon across all
islands, favoring windward and mauka areas, but also in the Kona
region of Big Island. Precipitation recorded so far today is
generally around a tenth of an inch or so, with higher amounts at
higher elevations and in some windward locations. Skies were
partly to mostly cloudy, and highly variable in both time and
space. Trade winds were blowing out of the east averaging 10-20
mph with gusts 20-30 mph.
A strong surface high north of the state, associated with a high-
amplitude upper level ridge, will get even stronger through
Saturday before weakening Sunday into early next week. The result
for our weather will be a continuation of trade winds and the
typical windward and mauka showers that come with that. Winds will
be moderate, but below advisory threshold over land.
An enhanced band of moisture will move east to west through the
state Sunday into Sunday night, bringing a slight increase in
showers. The upper level ridge referenced earlier will shift east
and weaken Monday into Tuesday as a high-amplitude trough attempts
to move east across the central Pacific. By Wednesday and Thursday
of next week, models show a large spread of potential strength and
location of this next upper trough. The latest deterministic GFS
shows a moderate closed low moving into position just a few
hundred miles northwest of the state. This would like put us back
in a wet pattern for the middle to latter part of next week. The
latest EC has most of the energy going farther north of the state,
with only weak troughing to our west. The ensembles are split as
well, so we will continue to watch this potential system over the
coming days until some convergence in solutions occurs.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026
Breezy trades will continue to persist over most of the island
chain. Intermittent mountain and windward showers are expected to
persist as well, with MVFR conditions possible under shower
activity. Leeward sites expected to remain VFR.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for Kauai,
Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island for windward sections due
to ongoing showers and low ceilings. Conditions are largely
expected to persist through the evening.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 7 kft
for leeward sides of the islands. Conditions are expected to
persist for the next several days.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026
Strong high pressure anchored along 30N and troughing west of the
islands will support strong easterly trades in maintenance of
elevated seas into next week. A Small Craft Advisory for a
combination of winds and waves is likely to remain in effect
throughout this time.
A small NW swell building this afternoon will peak on friday
bringing a small bump to surf along N and W facing shores. N and W
facing shores then see little in the way of additional energy for
the following several days until another small NW swell arrives
during the latter portions of next week.
Surf along E shores remains elevated due to persistent strong
trades. Restrengthening of trades this weekend into early next
week will likely produce another round of advisory-level surf and
possibly warning level surf along E shores of Oahu and Kauai.
Surf along S shores remains small with some background trade wind
swell for select exposures.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Thomas/Evans
MARINE...JVC
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office