NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
370
FXHW60 PHFO 111317 CCA
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
317 AM HST Sun May 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the islands will maintain moderate to
breezy easterly trade winds through the forecast period. Clouds
and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at
night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers
occasionally spilling into leeward communities due to the strength
of the trades. Some shower development is also expected each
afternoon over the Kona slopes of the Big Island. A disturbance
aloft could bring an increase in shower coverage and intensity
Thursday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1031 mb high is centered around 1050
miles north of Honolulu, and is driving moderate to breezy trade
winds across the island chain early this morning. CIRA ProxyVis
imagery shows partly cloudy conditions across much of the state,
with a bit more cloud cover affecting some windward and mauka
areas, as well as portions of leeward Big Island. Radar imagery
shows scattered showers moving into windward slopes and coasts,
with a few showers spilling leeward at times. Main short term
focus revolves around rain chances and trade winds trends.
High pressure will strengthen as it shifts northeastward and
further away from the islands today through Monday, keeping breezy
trade winds blowing. The high will settle southeastward slowly
Tuesday and Wednesday, with breezy trades persisting. A couple of
front stalling out northwest of the state could result in a slight
easing of the trades Thursday into next weekend. Overall, fairly
typical trade wind weather will prevail through much of the
forecast period. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas,
particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with an
occasional shower spilling into leeward communities due to the
strength of the trades. Sea breezes will drive shower develop over
leeward Big Island each afternoon, with most of these showers
fizzling out during the evening hours or shifting offshore. A
disturbance aloft could increase shower coverage and intensity
across the islands Thursday through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds will prevail during the next few days, with
winds strongest and most gusty during the afternoon hours. Clouds
and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with a few
showers reaching leeward sections from time to time.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over
windward sections of Kauai, Maui and the Big Island. Conditions
should improve later this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence
over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will
likely persist for the next couple days.
&&
.MARINE...
An area of high pressure far north of the state will maintain
fresh to strong trades through early this week. Thus, a Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) in effect for most Hawaiian Waters has been
extended through late Monday afternoon. As the aforementioned
high drifts slowly east, trade winds may weaken slightly Tuesday
through mid-week. The SCA will likely continue for the windier
waters around Maui County and the Big Island through much of this
week.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain elevated today as a
long period south southwest swell continues to push across the
local waters. Nearshore buoys this morning indicate a 3 to 4 foot
swell at 15 seconds. This should translate to surf heights just
below advisory thresholds. Expect a slow slow downward trend this
afternoon through mid-week.
Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy today due
to the stronger trade winds. Rough and choppy surf will persist
throughout the week with a slight decrease in surf heights as the
trades ease slightly by mid-week.
A series of small northwest swells will keep small surf in place
along north facing shores through next weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-
Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...Thomas
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
370
FXHW60 PHFO 111317 CCA
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
317 AM HST Sun May 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the islands will maintain moderate to
breezy easterly trade winds through the forecast period. Clouds
and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at
night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers
occasionally spilling into leeward communities due to the strength
of the trades. Some shower development is also expected each
afternoon over the Kona slopes of the Big Island. A disturbance
aloft could bring an increase in shower coverage and intensity
Thursday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1031 mb high is centered around 1050
miles north of Honolulu, and is driving moderate to breezy trade
winds across the island chain early this morning. CIRA ProxyVis
imagery shows partly cloudy conditions across much of the state,
with a bit more cloud cover affecting some windward and mauka
areas, as well as portions of leeward Big Island. Radar imagery
shows scattered showers moving into windward slopes and coasts,
with a few showers spilling leeward at times. Main short term
focus revolves around rain chances and trade winds trends.
High pressure will strengthen as it shifts northeastward and
further away from the islands today through Monday, keeping breezy
trade winds blowing. The high will settle southeastward slowly
Tuesday and Wednesday, with breezy trades persisting. A couple of
front stalling out northwest of the state could result in a slight
easing of the trades Thursday into next weekend. Overall, fairly
typical trade wind weather will prevail through much of the
forecast period. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas,
particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with an
occasional shower spilling into leeward communities due to the
strength of the trades. Sea breezes will drive shower develop over
leeward Big Island each afternoon, with most of these showers
fizzling out during the evening hours or shifting offshore. A
disturbance aloft could increase shower coverage and intensity
across the islands Thursday through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds will prevail during the next few days, with
winds strongest and most gusty during the afternoon hours. Clouds
and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with a few
showers reaching leeward sections from time to time.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over
windward sections of Kauai, Maui and the Big Island. Conditions
should improve later this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence
over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will
likely persist for the next couple days.
&&
.MARINE...
An area of high pressure far north of the state will maintain
fresh to strong trades through early this week. Thus, a Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) in effect for most Hawaiian Waters has been
extended through late Monday afternoon. As the aforementioned
high drifts slowly east, trade winds may weaken slightly Tuesday
through mid-week. The SCA will likely continue for the windier
waters around Maui County and the Big Island through much of this
week.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain elevated today as a
long period south southwest swell continues to push across the
local waters. Nearshore buoys this morning indicate a 3 to 4 foot
swell at 15 seconds. This should translate to surf heights just
below advisory thresholds. Expect a slow slow downward trend this
afternoon through mid-week.
Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy today due
to the stronger trade winds. Rough and choppy surf will persist
throughout the week with a slight decrease in surf heights as the
trades ease slightly by mid-week.
A series of small northwest swells will keep small surf in place
along north facing shores through next weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-
Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...Thomas
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office