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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 241942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
942 AM HST Wed Apr 24 2024

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will continue through the
week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas.
Trades look to ease slightly this weekend as high pressure weakens
to the north and low pressure develops to the far northwest.


The satellite and radar imagery this morning continues to show a
long band of low clouds and showers embedded in the trade wind
flow moving into windward areas of the islands. A few showers are
making it over to leeward areas as well, due to the breezy trades.
Expect a slight decrease in shower coverage through the day, but
picking back up tonight through Thursday morning.

A high pressure system will continue to linger far northeast of
the island chain through Friday, producing breezy to locally windy
trades across state. Wind speeds may approach Wind Advisory
thresholds in some wind favored locations over the Big Island this
afternoon into Thursday, but for now will be keeping speeds just
below advisory levels. This high center will drift farther east
Friday into the weekend, as a cut off low pressure system develops
approximately 1000 miles northwest of Kauai. Global models indicate
the cut off low will remain too far northwest of the state to impact
the local island weather. However, expect winds to veer from a more
east to southeast direction and decrease to more moderate speeds
this weekend, as well as relatively dry and sunny weather.


Breezy to locally windy trade winds will prevail for the next
couple of days as a surface ridge remains to the north of the
islands. Clouds and showers will continue favoring windward and
mauka areas, with isolated showers reaching leeward areas during
the overnight hours. Bands of moisture moving across the islands
with the trades will bring periods of MVFR to windward and mauka
areas through this afternoon, with MVFR conditions likely again

AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration will remain in effect
for windward sections of all islands, with conditions slowly
improving this afternoon.

AIRMET Tango for moderate low level turbulence downwind of the
terrain for all islands remains in effect with little change
expected through the forecast period.


Surface high pressure north of the state will slowly drift
eastward over the next several days. This feature will help drive
strong to locally near gale east northeasterly winds across the
islands. By Friday, the high is forecast to weaken, as low
pressure develops northwest of the area. In response, easterly
winds will weaken to light to moderate. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters through
Wednesday night, but may need to be extended for some of the
typical windier waters of Maui County and the Big Island.

Surf heights will remain below advisory thresholds for all shores
through the forecast period. A small, medium period northwest
swell will fill in across the waters tonight and persist through
Friday. Another small, medium period northwest pulse will enter
the waters Friday night, peak Saturday, and subside Sunday. Expect
these swells to produce small surf along north and northwest
facing beaches. Persistent trades will bring choppy, rough surf
all week along east facing beaches. By this weekend, weakening
trades will allow this surf to lower. Small background southerly
swell will lead to small surf along south facing beaches through
the forecast period.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office