NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
490
FXHW60 PHFO 240117
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
317 PM HST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and crisp mornings followed by typical daytime high
temperatures expected the next couple of days. Moderate trades
return this weekend allowing overnight temperatures to rebound
toward normal and bringing a chance for rain mainly to windward
and mauka areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cool and crisp conditions expected again tonight into Friday
morning from Kauai to Maui County. Dewpoints in the low to mid
50s and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low
60s and even upper 50s in a few select locales. The front itself
has dissipated in the waters of the Alenuihaha Channel between the
Big Island and Maui and will support redevelopment of just a few
scattered showers within the remnant moisture band tonight. Little
if any additional forward progress is expected given the loss of
upper-level forcing. A transient period of mid-level ridging over
the NE Pacific Basin will allow moderate trades to return for the
weekend. The return of easterlies will usher remnant frontal
moisture presently in the vicinity of the Big Island westward and
will serve as a moisture source for typical trade wind showers
Saturday night into the first half of next week.
Strong consensus among the extended guidance that renewed troughing
within NW flow aloft will favor low pressure development over the
lower latitudes of the Central Pacific. The remnant frontal boundary
will strengthen in response to developing forcing and will serve as
the baroclinic pathway for the surface low to track near or north of
the forecast area during the middle to latter portion of next week.
Convective feedback is playing some havoc with model solutions at
this time, so uncertainty is greater than normal, but the second
half of next week seemingly offers the next opportunity for
meaningful rainfall across some or all of the island chain.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moisture from a dissipated front will remain stalled near
northern Big Island and east Maui and will produce isolated MVFR
conditions along terrain through the evening. Gradual clearing is
expected overnight as land breezes develop. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail under a light, dry, and stable northwest
flow.
An upper level trough passing over the state will continue to
produce moderate turbulence aloft between FL180 and FL380 through
the afternoon. Turbulence aloft will diminish from west to east
overnight as the upper trough moves eastward. The jet stream may
advance toward the state again on Friday and bring moderate
turbulence above FL300.
&&
.MARINE...
Westerly winds will weaken tonight through early Friday. The
ridge will lift northward late Friday into the weekend, which
should allow light to moderate trade winds to return. The winds
become more uncertain early next week as a trough moves in from
the east and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
A combination of north northwest and north swells will produce large
disorganized surf along north facing shores. The swells are expected
to gradually decline Friday through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory
remains in effect for north facing exposures through 6 pm HST Friday.
A series of moderate northwest and north swells are possible early
next week.
Aside from areas exposed to wrap from north swells, east shore surf
will remain well below normal through the middle of next week. South
shore surf will remain at background very small levels through
the middle of next week.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for most marine
zones through 6 pm Friday due to 10 foot seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon RH values will fall well into the 40s again tomorrow,
but winds will fall short of the critical fire behavior threshold.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai
North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...JVC
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
490
FXHW60 PHFO 240117
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
317 PM HST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and crisp mornings followed by typical daytime high
temperatures expected the next couple of days. Moderate trades
return this weekend allowing overnight temperatures to rebound
toward normal and bringing a chance for rain mainly to windward
and mauka areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cool and crisp conditions expected again tonight into Friday
morning from Kauai to Maui County. Dewpoints in the low to mid
50s and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low
60s and even upper 50s in a few select locales. The front itself
has dissipated in the waters of the Alenuihaha Channel between the
Big Island and Maui and will support redevelopment of just a few
scattered showers within the remnant moisture band tonight. Little
if any additional forward progress is expected given the loss of
upper-level forcing. A transient period of mid-level ridging over
the NE Pacific Basin will allow moderate trades to return for the
weekend. The return of easterlies will usher remnant frontal
moisture presently in the vicinity of the Big Island westward and
will serve as a moisture source for typical trade wind showers
Saturday night into the first half of next week.
Strong consensus among the extended guidance that renewed troughing
within NW flow aloft will favor low pressure development over the
lower latitudes of the Central Pacific. The remnant frontal boundary
will strengthen in response to developing forcing and will serve as
the baroclinic pathway for the surface low to track near or north of
the forecast area during the middle to latter portion of next week.
Convective feedback is playing some havoc with model solutions at
this time, so uncertainty is greater than normal, but the second
half of next week seemingly offers the next opportunity for
meaningful rainfall across some or all of the island chain.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moisture from a dissipated front will remain stalled near
northern Big Island and east Maui and will produce isolated MVFR
conditions along terrain through the evening. Gradual clearing is
expected overnight as land breezes develop. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail under a light, dry, and stable northwest
flow.
An upper level trough passing over the state will continue to
produce moderate turbulence aloft between FL180 and FL380 through
the afternoon. Turbulence aloft will diminish from west to east
overnight as the upper trough moves eastward. The jet stream may
advance toward the state again on Friday and bring moderate
turbulence above FL300.
&&
.MARINE...
Westerly winds will weaken tonight through early Friday. The
ridge will lift northward late Friday into the weekend, which
should allow light to moderate trade winds to return. The winds
become more uncertain early next week as a trough moves in from
the east and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
A combination of north northwest and north swells will produce large
disorganized surf along north facing shores. The swells are expected
to gradually decline Friday through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory
remains in effect for north facing exposures through 6 pm HST Friday.
A series of moderate northwest and north swells are possible early
next week.
Aside from areas exposed to wrap from north swells, east shore surf
will remain well below normal through the middle of next week. South
shore surf will remain at background very small levels through
the middle of next week.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for most marine
zones through 6 pm Friday due to 10 foot seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon RH values will fall well into the 40s again tomorrow,
but winds will fall short of the critical fire behavior threshold.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai
North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...JVC
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office