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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 260700
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST Tue Jul 25 2017
Trade wind weather will prevail through the week into the weekend,
thanks to high pressure persisting far to the north-northeast of the
area. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas
with just a few brief showers expected over leeward locations. The
islands may see an uptick in shower activity by the weekend as an
area of moisture moves across the area.
Locally breezy trade winds prevail over the islands this evening,
as a 1030+ mb surface high stays far north northeast of the state,
with rather tight pressure gradient across the area. There are
patches of low clouds in the island vicinity as revealed by latest
satellite imagery, and will bring some passing showers to the area
through rest of the evening into early Wednesday morning. Radar data
indicate much of these showers are not heavy, and these showers will
move quickly west under the firm trade winds.
No big change to the weather is expected through the next few days
as the main synoptic weather picture stays somewhat static. The
current high pressure will drift slowly more east-southeast and
weaken just a bit. This will lead to a slight slack of the pressure
gradient across the area in the coming days, and in turn, a slight
easing in the trades. Latest forecast models still indicate the high
pressure will hold, thus trade wind weather will prevail at least
over the state through rest of the week.
Latest models also continue to hint a more moist airmass from the
east to reach the islands by the weekend, with no outstanding upper
level feature to enhance the moisture. Therefore, can expect mainly
a slight uptick in shower activity especially over windward and
mauka areas by then.
A high pressure center far to the northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands will produce moderate to locally strong northeasterly
trade winds with isolated showers. VFR conditions are expected.
AIRMET Tango in effect for Tempo Moderate low level turbulence
over and south through west of all mountains.
Trade wind speeds are expected to maintain Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) conditions across the typical windy waters adjacent to the
islands of Maui County and the Big Island through Wednesday night.
The current forecast indicates the trades will weaken slightly
starting Thursday. These somewhat lighter trades may continue into
The breezy trade winds will maintain moderate choppy surf along most
east facing shores through Wednesday night. There may be a slight
drop in surf heights along east facing shores from Thursday through
Friday as the trades weaken slightly. However, surf along some east
facing shores may have a modest boost from this weekend into early
next week due to swells from distant tropical cyclones in the
Small swells from the southeast, south and southwest will produce
small to moderate background surf along south facing shores through
this weekend. Elsewhere, a long period west swell from a distance
typhoon in the western Pacific arriving on Friday may cause a slight
boost in surf heights along some west facing shores this weekend.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office